Millennials can chill about not having massive savings

… because they’re young. Young people generally don’t have savings, and it beats me where the idea came from that they should have. H/T to Monevator, who introduced me to the idea that people in FT land are feeling troubled that only one in six millennials have £100,000 in savings. My personal reaction to that was WTF, what do these guys know that I didn’t?

I was in my late 40s before I ever saw an account with six figures to my name. Apparently you need a deposit of £100k to buy a house in London. Housing has always been expensive in London. I was born in London, went to university there, and spend the first decade of my working life there. I had job-switched a few times and the Bank of England inflation calculator tells me I was earning reasonably well for a twenty-something. I was single and child-free.

What was the best housing situation I could afford back then? A single rented room in a HMO in Ealing where I had to put salt round the periphery to prevent black slugs invading the place. This was an upgrade on the various rooms in shared houses I’d lived in before. I was in my late 20s, and no, I didn’t really have any savings either, other than about £5k, because I had believed that I needed to pay the fees of my MSc course myself, but it turned out that the Manpower Services Commission gave me a grant. It still didn’t help me buy a house in London.

So I moved out of London. The problem of not having a deposit was still there, but when I moved to Ipswich I was earning better and the prospects for salary increases were better for me. So I borrowed about £10k from a MBNA credit card on interest-free credit for a year to put down as a deposit for a house, perpetrating the single greatest piece of financial folly in my entire life – buying a house at a market high. I used my better salary to pay down that interest-free card over the year – I really did pay 0% on it. But I didn’t have savings of £15k from the start. Those were more innocent times, when mortgage companies looked at only your salary and didn’t ask about CC debts, because such debt was not as commonplace as now.

That £15k deposit was the equivalent of £40k now. Earlier generations of Ermine weren’t any better at saving than Millennials. There is an argument that young people start off more skint now than they used to. There is a compensation for those working in cities that they observe much faster career progression in their early 30s than previous generations

so it’s difficult to tease this appart – I would say that average and middling talented young folk had an easier time in my generation that Millennials, but high-flyers have much better opportunities now, part of a general winner-takes-all trend.

The Hemingway law of motion – Slowly at first, then all of a sudden

In Hemingway’s The Sun Also Rises, there is this passage summarising  economic change

“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.
“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”

and the principle applies to a lot of economic discourse. I found it also applies to savings, and the reasons are similar, though in reverse.

Young adults spend most of their money on living, and even in the 30s to 40s an awful lot goes into the mortgage if they have one – that was my single worst cost over that period in my life. Although all that money is going into consumerism, it is a durable consumer good, housing. You don’t see the numbers ticking up on a screen, at best you see them ticking down on a mortgage statement. Even that is not a linear progression, however, until it gets to the all of a sudden point at the end of the term

Slowly at first, and then all of a sudden. Remember the balance is my debt and their asset, it is better for me at £1k than at £16k…
Your twenties and thirties are really, really tough, financially

Because you don’t have any capital behind you, and you are trying to bootstrap yourself out of that. It’s particularly tough if your chosen lifestyle has children in it, because biology dictates that really wants to have started by your forties.

Millennials aren’t old enough to be in their forties yet. Then as they get into their forties, there is the faint sound of a distant signal, one I entirely missed.

Such passes the glory of the world, Time eats it like wormwood

The blazing fires of ambition begins to fade, things in life other than work become more important. Mark Zuckerberg put it a different way

“Young people are just smarter,” he said with a straight face. “Why are most chess masters under 30?” he asked. “I don’t know,” he answered. “Young people just have simpler lives. We may not own a car. We may not have family.” In the absence of those distractions, he says, you can focus on big ideologies. He added, “I only own a mattress.” Later: “Simplicity in life allows you to focus on what’s important.”

But there is another aspect to it, which is that as time goes by you may not take your sense of self worth quite so much from your reflected glory in other people’s eyes, as measured in your pay packet. But to have the privilege of making that call, you need to get out of the rat-race. Carl Jung put it well in a different context

we cannot live the afternoon of life according to the programme of life’s morning—for what was great in the morning will be little at evening, and what in the morning was true will at evening have become a lie.

Carl Jung Modern Man in Search of a Soul

There is a narrow switch-point, across one’s forties, where you can take the waning energies of the outward projection of career, and play this weakening hand into a financial system that hugely favours the better-off. In particular, higher-rate tax payers are massively favoured for saving into a pension, and you’re more likely to be in the 40% tax area if you have seen career progression.

In that sort of world, paying down your mortgage at a time of low interest rates is a serious error if you can pay the same amount into a SIPP and avoid paying 40% tax on it. For the better off millennials that is coming in the next decade – if they can forgo £60k of spending they will see £100k in their SIPP account.

I never saw a sum of £100k in any account to my name until my late 40s, and that was an ISA not a SIPP, although the SIPP did get a long way there. I’m not yet sure that yer average Millennial saving into a SIPP and expecting to retire at 67 would necessarily have got to £100k in that SIPP in their mid-30s, although those aiming for early retirement should have by now.

Like RIT, my present savings are from the Saving Hard angle, although by now investment returns are beginning to catch my younger self up, compound interest didn’t really help me get there, but it is giving my retired self a lift now.

I haven’t got a long and illustrious saving history behind me other than in being fortunate enough to have many years in a company pension. Most of my earlier saving history was buying myself out of the mortgage, in the typical young person’s saving mode with no six-figure balances to show for it.

The young Ermine was one of those average savers without any savings balances

…Until he wasn’t, as he saw the writing on the wall, but then he wan’t young any more 😉 My younger self’s greatest win was not spending more than I earned1. Young people’s saving tends to mostly take the form of paying a mortgage, reducing someone else’s asset rather than seeing their own account numbers go up. It is still a form of saving – they have given this massive claim on their future earning potential and they are chipping away at that claim.

There is a financial cycle of life. You will find it easier to work with it unless you inherit money, or are fortunate enough in both smarts and luck to make a lot of money early in life and keep it. In that cycle young people are rich in human capital and poor in financial capital. That’s why the young don’t have six-figure savings but the greybeards do. If young people do have savings in frightfully expensive London, then as the FT said in their article, those young people have either received an explicit bung from someone, or they are benefiting from an implicit bung if they are staying with their parents because that is saving them a lot of money that would otherwise be going to rent and living costs.

Millennials can chill about being young and not having savings, and the young in previous generations didn’t have loads of savings either. One in five of those feckless bastards only paid the interest on their mortgages and now act all surprised that there is such a thing as paying off the capital too, which indicates there’s plenty of financial muppetry in the older generation…

  1. with the exception of buying a house, which though stupid in timing, was largely a consumer durable. You know the pack drill, pay for cars, holidays and partying with saved cash or do without. 

The Global Auction – why learning isn’t earning any more in the West

There have been some interesting studies of work of late, and I took a read of some of these because the general picture I am getting is that the world of work has been steadily getting more and more horrible since I quit the workforce in 2012. A gem of a book that explains a lot of what is happening to work and what happened to my job is this book, which I discovered while web-ratholing via George Monbiot’s recent column. I was always going to be a sucker for his lede

It’s untenable to let salaried work define us.

although perhaps not so much for his line on volunteering 😉

The book is called The Global Auction: the broken promises of education, jobs and incomes, and as I started reading it I immediately thought of a couple I am vaguely acquainted with who have two children. They’re not rich enough to support their desired lifestyle and send both children to public school, so they send just one. This puzzled me as it seems an obvious way to fund an army of therapists in the troubled adult future of the child who is deemed unworthy, but I suspect that it’s a terrible misallocation of capital even in the case of the Most Favoured Child. It’s not particularly that the Most Favoured one is particularly clever or the Most Unfavoured particularly dimwitted. They’re both probably slightly to the right of the bell curve, for all I know they may well be sharper than I am, but the problem is in the conventional assumptions of their parents, that learning is earning.

The prognosis in the book for Most Favoured Child1 is horrific –

We believe that everyone has a right to know that the opportunity bargain based on better education, better jobs, and better incomes can no longer deliver the American Dream.

Continue reading “The Global Auction – why learning isn’t earning any more in the West”

London is a different country – they do things differently there

Mrs Ermine went to the Great Wen to wrangle some business there, and returned to the provinces with culture shock. London is at the leading edge of many changes in the way we do things, and the general principle of these changes is to take something simple and complicate the hell out of it.

That’s part of the way capitalism works, of course – there’s money to be made in the gap between action and comprehension. Never more, it seems, than in the simple act of getting a drink of water hydrated. The Coca-Cola corporation has been in this biz for donkey’s years, selling us sugar water, plus endless variants on sugar water without the sugar. Hell, they even tried to sell Londoners filtered tap water, which they filtered in some high-tech way that added bromate into to the Eau de Sidcup that Thames Water had competently filtered for them.

There’s a massive hoopla about plastic waste on now, and Mrs Ermine observed this piece of equipment in Hammersmith bus station

The Mayor of London’s water dispensing gear, along with the sign showing you it dispenses water over the floor

Continue reading “London is a different country – they do things differently there”

Time for market timing?

On the last working day of 2017, the Ermine pulled up the FTSE100 index and was greeted with the following tribute to irrational exuberance.

FTSE100 2012-2017
All hunky dory and way up in the clouds, eh. What on earth could go wrong here?

What’s a fellow to do? Way back when, I wrote a post inspired by the reported comment by a City gent, to the effect of I don’t know WTF we are doing up here, with the implication that it’ll all end in tears. That was in 2013, with the index about a thousand points lower than now.

I’m still heavy on FTSE100 shares in my HYP, despite efforts to build around them with world index-trackers, which tend to be over half exposed to the US. I used to grouse about that, buying into an overpriced American market, but not so much now. Which brings me to the problem for a net investor, where the hell do you find value?


Ah yes, Bitcoin. It’s the latest craze, tulip bulbs got nothing on this, along with the stories of people making loadsamoney. Trouble is the price curve looks like an exponential ramp, which means if there is value there it’s largely captured by people who were into it over a year ago. Not going there – at least some of what you buy on the stock market is a productive asset, and it’s always nice to see that in an investment, though I will make an exception for gold due to its long history 😉

the fog of war and confounding factors

One confusing factor for Brits is that  we voted last year to kick all those foreign sorts out and/or take back control at the cost of our economy, so the value of the pound is down a long way. Which has the effect of making everything else look higher than it really is, so say a fifth of this effect is due to the fact that the numbers on the vertical scale are 80% of what they used to be. In a country with a midget currency, everything looks like the work of kings. So some of this gain isn’t real, although it still makes life more expensive for  savers buying their future income streams using the fruits of their toil earned in Great British Pounds, because wages haven’t gone up 20% to compensate. I guess Remoaners often work in the City so they may be getting some salary lift, which seems only fair for having their futures shat on. Most Brits aren’t so lucky as to get wage rises, but at least they got the result they wanted. Continue reading “Time for market timing?”

Mankind is hard-wired to work, sez Nick Boles

Bollocks, sez the ermine. I could stop there and make this the shortest post on here, but such spurious claims should be consigned to the dustbin of history along with the idea you would die if you went over 30 mph and other such folly. I’ve batted on this wicket before, but it’s a good fight IMO.

Take it away, Nick:

The main objection to the idea of a universal basic income is not practical but moral,” he writes.

“Its enthusiasts suggest that when intelligent machines make most of us redundant, we will all dispense with the idea of earning a living and find true fulfilment in writing poetry, playing music and nurturing plants. That is dangerous nonsense.

“Mankind is hard-wired to work. We gain satisfaction from it. It gives us a sense of identity, purpose and belonging … we should not be trying to create a world in which most people do not feel the need to work.

Why ever the hell not? If the robots are as good as they’re cracked up to be, then let ’em have at it. Where did this argument that work was an essential part of life come from? Clearly historically human work has been needed to arrange the world to a state more congenial to human life, such niceties as having food in the winter etc. We probably needed a narrative for why things were so shit at times, in Western culture I’d suggest it started with the Bible, to wit

17 And unto Adam he said, Because thou hast hearkened unto the voice of thy wife, and hast eaten of the tree, of which I commanded thee, saying, Thou shalt not eat of it: cursed is the ground for thy sake; in sorrow shalt thou eat of it all the days of thy life;

18 Thorns also and thistles shall it bring forth to thee; and thou shalt eat the herb of the field;

19 In the sweat of thy face shalt thou eat bread, till thou return unto the ground;

Clearly the search for knowledge was disparaged in Paradise1, once the necky Adam had chomped on the apple he got a right bollocking, In the sweat of thy face shalt thou eat bread and all that. No work, no eat, buster, who’s a clever boy then?

When the Ermine household still had a telly, we watched a series by Niall Ferguson titled Civilisation – the West and the Rest. The dapper and erudite  Niall was no match for Kenneth Clark’s Civilisation,2 but he made the premise that this was turbocharged by Martin Luther, to the effect that the rest of the world got to eat our dust up to about 1950, curiously the date so many of us would like to wind the clock back to. The problem with elevating the doctrine of redemption by faith alone is that it is an invitation to slackers to sit on their backsides, so Luther gives these idlers a pre-emptive bollocking

Works are necessary for salvation but they do not cause salvation; for faith alone gives life.

and there we have it, a straight line of reasoning from Luther to Nick Boles, via the collective unconscious transmitted through culture.

In living proof that children have no taste, the young Ermine read a lot of science fiction back in the day. I recall my mother’s face blanching when I told her I had identified Asimov as one of my favourite authors at the grammar school entrance interview after the exam. I got in anyway despite this undesirable taste for pulp fiction.

Today’s readers should bear in mind this was a world where I saw Nasa putting people on the moon live on the school TV. There was no such thing as global warming, and the Limits to Growth hadn’t been published. These were the days when the white heat of technology was going to give us electricity too cheap to meter, well, that is, if it didn’t kill us first. As such the primitive awareness of my juvenile mind saw nothing wrong with the implied myth of continuous progress that underpinned Asimov’s stories, and anyway, he was a good storyteller.

I had a particular penchant for his Foundation series, but the story that Nick Boles and his fellow Calvinist work is good for you boosters need to read is probably The Naked Sun in which we are introduced to the Spacer world Solaria, settled some two and a half thousand years hence. It is populated by humans called Solarians.

Now it has to be said that Solarians are sick puppies by our standards3, not particularly physically but mentally/culturally, they hate being in each others presence, communicating with each other through screens. Anybody with teenagers probably thinks we are nine tenths of the way there already, Asimov’s genius lay in anticipating this pathology of the human makeup before it was technically viable and out there for all to see.

Solarians would never have tolerated being in the same room as each other, but we’re getting there

Solarians have the edge on our teenagers because they have cracked the work problem totally. They are vastly outnumbered by their robots, who do all the work. Our Nick really wouldn’t like it there.

Now I don’t believe for a minute that we will be colonising outer space, ever, and the pressing problem of using fossil fuels to vastly increase our population beyond the carrying capacity of the energy flow into the planet doesn’t bode well for the idea of settling Spacer worlds in a couple of thousand years. It’s not impossible, because perhaps as people get richer they have fewer children and we might be able to reduce the overall population to a sustainable level and have energy left over for that sort of thing. Or we might split into the .01% who own all the robotic resources and the rest of us be left to starve. Let’s hear it from Elon Musk

“You want to wake up in the morning and think the future is going to be great – and that’s what being a spacefaring civilization is all about. It’s about believing in the future and thinking that the future will be better than the past. And I can’t think of anything more exciting than going out there and being among the stars.”

— Elon Musk, CEO and Lead Designer, SpaceX

Yup. Makes you wonder why Peter Thiel is such a lightweight then and has given up on seasteading as being technically too hard – at least you get a free atmosphere and fish. Maybe he should hitch a ride to Mars.

One of the main issues with Nick Boles is that a lot of his vaunted work is going to be shit work, like Uber or bussing tables and getting coffee. Now if we could train capitalism to value, or at least tolerate people, then let’s get the robots to do the work. At the moment we have people doing low end work that a little bit of investment could get the robots doing, and then let’s all chill a bit and get rid of this antideluvian work is good for you concept. In a world where human work was needed to keep it habitable and people fed, yes, we needed religious prohibitions on slackers. If the robots are up to scratch then we can let those prohibitions go and stop lauding work as an innate Good Thing. I figure a universal basic income would stop companies taking the piss and employing people on zero-hours contracts doing work a bit of investment could automate. Shit work should be automated out of existence.

Neoliberals will take pot shots at all sorts of things about a universal income. The owners of capital4 like houses will drive up rents and enrich themselves because people can pay more. After all, Piketty identified the problem, which is that the return on capital is increasing faster than the return on labour, so people who have labour and no capital are losing the fight. Not many of us are born with capital to our names, although the Guardian claims there’s hope for the millennials now, as we go back to the future and dynastic wealth starts to matter.

All of these are indicative of an economy running up against natural limits to growth – capital accumulated slowly across generations in the centuries before the Industrial Revolution, but when productivity was boosted there was enough so that people in decent jobs in first World countries could accumulate wealth across a working lifetime in some cases. Productivity is falling and growth is lower than it was in the Sixties when I read those stories of extraterrestrial derring-do. Nevertheless, the Solarians have a good message for us, and we can read it in the story of the uber-rich, down to the Kardashians, the Ecclestone girls and all sorts, all the way down to Ermines. You really don’t need work to have a good time. It is a way, and it’s right for some, but don’t generalise, Nick. Work is overrated.

  1. one of the dreadful things the EU has been doing with our money along with spending it on Welsh roads and deprived areas in England has been setting up a website to disseminate European art, from which I got the cover picture The Garden of Eden with the Fall of Man by Rubens and Breughel. You can read all about it and download a massive 9Mb image so you could use your 4k TV as a display of the finest art in the continent, all for free. I really am so glad we voted to get away from such effete pursuits. Presumably the Arts Council will use its vastly improved grant resulting from the Brexit dividend to do something similar in a year or so, focusing on British artists of course… 
  2. I was a little squirt at primary school then. The Ermine household was too poor to even know anyone with a TV never mind have one so I have never actually seen this, but my mother bought the book and I read it. I am of the general opinion that children have zero taste so it was probably largely wasted on me, but perhaps some of it stuck. 
  3. I’m not sure what it says about me, but I have a sneaking suspicion the Solarians would view us as the sick puppies, and I’m minded to say they really do have a point, in a world where for example we pay the Bath vice-chancellor half a million sods plus £2 biscuit money while we condemn young people to indentured servitude paying student loans off without having the balls to tell enough of them they aren’t bright enough to realistically get any return on investment. Not to mention a world where Nick Boles shoots his gob off about work being an inherent good. 
  4. Yeah, I know. And shares 😉 This is why we need regulation, to stop the owners of capital grabbing all of it. Nobody seems to be thinking never mind pitching for the happy medium 

Simple Living in Suffolk is no more

WordPress is great as a blogging platform, but this Christmas period is the third time my self-hosted WP has been hacked over the odd ten years of running this, and I’ve had enough.

I didn’t give up work to spend my days trawling through loads of computer files to look for exactly where the particular cyber scum had crapped on. It was time to give up the fight against the tosspots of this world. People are always more tossy than I can be clever.

So the solution is that WordPress can have the problem. I even considered paying for it for a moment, but then decided against it. I’m not so vain that I need to have my own domain name at this stage, because I don’t monetize the site. If Monevator can’t work out how to do that then I sure as hell aren’t smart enough 😉

But I do learn and appreciate the dialogue. Mrs Ermine even talked me out pulling the plug by offering to pay the WordPress rent. So I moved the content and comments to

The ermine didn’t get where he is today by paying for things he can’t touch. I have no mobile phone subscription, I don’t rent anything if I can avoid it and one of the first wins over spending I got on deciding to leave work was to shoot all subscriptions and then take it from there. I’m not going to break that habit yet, but the WordPress corporation can have the work of keeping the Mujahidin Cyber Army out of their sprawling and messy code. And I don’t ever want to see PHP again.

Oddly enough I can still make websites using old-skool passive html – using Jekyll is a good way to dynamically process pages and create a great website on something historical that doesn’t change much. It would even do a very good attempt at blogging. But the tragedy of all static html is that there is no comment system, for that you need the database, and that’s where it all starts to go pear shaped. Since interacting with commenters is the whole point of blogging IMO jekyll doesn’t work for blogging.

It’s also part of the wider shift I mentioned last time. I want to get away from the nitty-gritty of making particular things happen – it is the creativity of writing that I am after rather than making computers do something. I want to spend time in places like this

Brean Down, Somerset
Brean Down, Somerset

than behind a screen. I took time out from battling the Cyber Army to go out and listen to the tawny owls hooting in the garden, because it is good to know what matters in this world more. So I want to use my time well, and in this quiet time of the year it is important to think about what I will not do as well as what I will do. Because every yes to the owls and the trees with the moon is a no to something else like


and I’ve seen too much of the latter 😉 Continue reading “Simple Living in Suffolk is no more”

Winter solstice thoughts on reinventing oneself in retirement

It is now the winter solstice, the Holly King has vanquished the Oak King. It seems a good time of year to reflect on the balance of opposites, because uneasy lies the head that wears a crown...

The search for wisdom to go with knowledge is one of the themes of the second half of life.Joseph Campbell talked about the value of myth in passing on wisdom, in his magnum opus The Hero with a Thousand Faces. For nearly two decades after my mid-twenties I hardly read any fiction at all, and it probably impaired my ability to comprehend the mystery of being human. That was okay then – you don’t become an engineer because you have a burning sense of wanting to work with people and understand how they work 😉

Establishing themselves in society in the Turning Outwards in one’s twenties, most people find some aspects of their psyche easier to face the world with. The extrovert seeks the company of people, and feeds off their energy. I was not one of these, I was never going to become a salesman, a politician or a motivational speaker. The inferior function, that aspect of one’s psyche that is not normally set against the world, slumbers across the working years, it is not efficient to play a weaker hand.

In my case this is pretty much the whole of the humanities in terms of knowledge, and perhaps a gentling of the introverted nature. I didn’t pick any of this up when I retired in 2012,  perhaps the first few years were occupied with the process of recovery.

But I am picking up signals from these inferior1 functions, now that enough time has passed since stopping work, and now that I have moved. Although we knew a few people here from before, it is invigorating to start anew, and the people we are meeting here value different things in life. They are generally from a more artistic rather than an engineering background. It is early days yet, but perhaps widening the range of activities I cover offers a different kind of reward, developing what has been idle for a long time. I am learning different things – to take one example I have become a better photographer in the areas of composition and the decisive moment, while perhaps weaker in the technical control of the camera since I let this be done automatically a lot more now. I needed to push myself in different areas of the craft, ones I have left fallow too often because they weren’t my strong hand.

Jung posits that the inferior functions of the psyche  still run in the background, and as one gets older these seek expression, to maintain balance. I was surprised to come across the same concept derived from a very different angle from the author Brene Brown, with an unusual twist.

Looking at others, there is a general principle, that energy and capabilities need to flow, the water must find its way to the sea. What is suppressed backs up and will out, but I hadn’t really thought this extended to what is unused.

life as a journey

I am fortunate in that the town I moved to has several bookshops2, and on some previous visit a couple of years ago I picked up one that was remaindered for £5, titled New Passages, by Gail Sheehy. I had already read the original version titled Passages, (predictable crises of adult life) as a library book, and drew on a lot of it when I wrote Journey’s End. There was also a lot of dissonance for me in the case-studies of people as they went through the stages of life. I assumed the dissonance was due to the fact that most of the cases were American, and the book was written when I was a teenager so it describes a world several decades old.

The blurb of the new book was

At last, this is your story. You’ll recognize yourself, your friends, and your loves. You’ll see how to use each life crisis as an opportunity for creative change — to grow to your full potential.

Mrs Ermine appropriated the book so I never got to read it at the time, I figured she may as well read it first since I had already read the original version. I’ve only now started reading the new version, which was written in 1995, and the original version was written in 1976. And saw Sheehy had written about the end of my career when I was just over halfway through it.

“Just at the point when […] reached their forties. however, sweeping structural changes were revolutionising the American and Western European economies. A digital revolution happened under their noses. Worldwide industrial competition grows more fierce every year”

This did happen to The Firm, when I was in my thirties. I had just foolishly overpaid for my first house, so I kept my head down and sucked it up. I was lucky enough to be too young to be the obvious target for the massive rotating axe swung above the workforce’s heads in 1997. Some of those guys got fantastic payoffs, some in their 50s being able to draw their pensions immediately with no actuarial reduction, effectively transferring the cost of redundancy payment from The Firm to the pension scheme. And Sheehy foresaw that, and in applying it to the generation 10 years older than me, foretold what would happen to me just over a decade later.

Sheehy’s description of the experience of the American blue collar workers presaged Donald Trump’s base. I shared  with them a roughly fixed work identity after I had job-switched in my twenties. I was intellectually agile enough to change field entirely, from electronics engineering to software/IT/networking as well as leading people as I drifted up the greasy pole. But it’s nothing like Peter Drucker’s3 exhortations

“you have to take responsibility for knowing yourself so you can find the right jobs as you develop and as your family becomes a factor in your values and choices. […]Simply being well-educated is no longer enough.[…] When you don’t communicate, you don’t get to do the things you are good at.”[^4]

Hindsight is always a wonderful thing. because all the decision trees that fan out from any one state have been collapsed into what did happen, the one path pruned from the bushy growth of potential outcomes. But I can’t help wondering what would have happened if the younger Ermine had picked up Gail Sheehy’s signal earlier. I can’t even take solace in the thought that others didn’t see that coming – Jim at SMHD saw the writing on the wall in his thirties,

I used to worry about losing my job in my fifties quite a bit, and it was quite a driver behind the saving and investing that I did in my thirties and forties.


and I am a similar age. Jim may have been ahead of the curve here. The Cambridge alumnus magazine4 Cam 81 has a spine chilling vision of the ‘new normal’ global economy 3.0 where everybody should worry about losing their jobs, pretty much stick your head between your knees and kiss your ass goodbye. It’s automation wot’s doing it, and

the reason firms in high-income countries want to pursue automation is because they are under competitive pressure from foreign imports.

A deadly economic flat spin coming our way. But hell, the bear case always sounds smarter, so let’s all whistle a dancing tune and invoke the optimist’s cure-all ‘human ingenuity’ and hope it doesn’t happen, eh? Having seen Sheehy be right on the economic forces, I figured I would see what she had to say about the more personal future. Continue reading “Winter solstice thoughts on reinventing oneself in retirement”