Fear and loathing in the markets again

The Ermine household decamped to Wales for a few days, near Saundersfoot. Over a decade ago I was halfway through my three-year plan to gain manumission from The Man. The halfway point of any drawn out goal like that is really tough – you have lost the comfort of the port of departure, and are on the stormy uncertain seas without sight of the distant friendly shores.

I was living on roughly the national minimum wage, in order to maximize the benefits of salary sacrifice. This was greatly softened by the fact we owned a house outright and several acres of farmland which Mrs Ermine grew a fair amount of our food. But it was tough, and for a holiday in that period we took two weeks out, touring south Wales in our campervan, staying on campsites. Mrs Ermine has a penchant for spas, and while we stayed at Trevayne Farm campsite one afternoon she sampled the spa, and in the evening I walked down from the campsite and we had dinner at St Brides Spa Hotel. It wasn’t cheap, but not having gone out to a restaurant for a long time the experience was great. Hedonic adaptation means eating out every week gets ho hum, but if you go big once in a while it really hits the spot.

This time we stayed in a flat in Saundersfoot itself, which is a better experience than having to walk back three-quarters of a mile uphill to the campsite, and I got to see more of the strange heritage of the place.

It used to be a coal harbour, and the train ran along the now rather pleasant promenade along to Wiseman’s Bridge going through some tunnels carved through the dark rock, some of them long enough to be a struggle to see your way in the middle.

King’s Quoit, Manorbier

The Wales coast path had some remarkable prehistoric monuments, and we encountered these bad boys with curved crimson bills. I have never seen choughs before.

Chough, Manorbier Bay, Pembrokeshire
Chough, Manorbier Bay, Pembrokeshire

One downside of Saundersfoot beach and walk is it is dog-infested. Despite the council’s fond belief that dog owners can read, my experience is they don’t give a shit about signs, and assume everybody is as delighted to come across their precious pooch as they are. “Oh he won’t bite” they exclaim lamely when two barking rows of drooling teeth jump up at you.

Dogs not allowed on that side of the beach. Except for these ones, because they are special.

The photo, taken around noon on the 11th May, shows that these dogs were special, and rules didn’t apply to them. Neither the rules saying no dogs on that side of the beach, nor the rules saying keep your mutt on a lead, because it’s so much more fun for Fido to race up and down the beach, other beachgoers be damned. That’s bad on the beach, it’s really quite unpleasant in the tunnels.

crisis, what crisis?

I come back after about a week away and Monevator’s Bonfire of the Vanities seems to indicate that it’s been a tough time in the markets of late. GBP investors’ ability to shoot straight is handicapped by the falling pound, which flatters apparent returns.

Looking at my iWeb ISA, it didn’t look so bad, though of course that’s in falling pounds. I sold out a fair amount a little before the turn of the year, because I had done reasonably well coming out of the Covid crash and unicorn shit is on the rise. There is a lot of gold in there, because I had a plan to sell out gold from my ISA and rebuy it in my GIA, and buy income in the ISA with the liberated cash. Because: income tax and inflation.

Although discharging capital gains is a pain, with a gold ETF I can swap some SGLP for a gold ETF run by Wisdom Tree or SPDR, which would harvest capital gains for the cost of the turn.

As it was, I started buying gold in the GIA, but then Putin switched from exercises to war, and although I had started buying income ITs by selling gold in the ISA, I didn’t sell the rest of the gold for cash, so I rather increased my total exposure to gold. I will continue to hold my capital in the ISA as gold rather than cash, selling gold only just as I am buying. For some reason you don’t seem to have to wait for settlement in an ISA, so other than the £5 transaction cost there’s no advantage to selling it for cash ahead of the purchase.

I will admit to a fair amount of schadenfreude about tech, which I viewed as vastly overvalued before, and other than my exposure as part of VWRL didn’t really have much exposure. I do take the point that this will have given up return although I wasn’t quite as heavy on dividend paying equities as GFF, VWRL is my largest equity holding and pays almost diddly squat in yield. 1.56% isn’t going to make anybody fat. One needs £600,000 to capital in VWRL to earn £10k in dividends. I am some way off that. Continue reading “Fear and loathing in the markets again”