I use Citywire occasionally, and they spammed me with this breathless noodling. Now don’t get me wrong. I share some of their opinion that economically we are in a hole, and until the last couple of months I would say the stock market was overvalued, particularly in tech. However, this is all storytelling, and one thing I have learned across ten years is that short-term macro storytelling is hard to use. To be honest, you are better off with a Netflix subscription, not so much because the storytelling is better, but because the scenery and the protagonists are more attractive. How do you like your stories?
Which storytelling would you rather look at? Netflix seems to roll in cheaper at £192 p.a
SELL IN BEFORE MAY AND GO AWAY!
The market bounce has entered April. Investors should use this rally to sell
before May, as equity markets may be about to re-enter a volatile bear market
for the rest of 2022.
Hmm, what rally is this we speak of? Let me consult the Great God Vanguard and their price of VWRL
Well, I suppose it’s a rally of sorts. Equity markets may always ‘enter volatility’. What I would expect to get for £280 a year is at least Equity Markets will enter a volatile bear market after May, and if they are higher in December than they were in May (benchmark SPX or QQQ or whatever) then your money back, hows about that? Or if December is too heady for you because of the Santa bounce, then guarantee it till St Leger Day at least.
Record-high inflation has left central banks cornered, unable to resist hiking
rates and taking liquidity out of the market. This makes the economic downturn
They’ve spent the last ten years resisting hiking rates when perhaps they should have done. Has somebody suddenly taken the old Frankenstein jump leads to Paul Volcker then? Surely the energy crisis is more of a thing than what the Fed may or may not get up to. At least it’s got form.
Yield curves are one of the leading indicators for investment strategists, along with liquidity data and monetary aggregates.
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Plan will auto renew for £280/ year or £28/month until cancelled
Don’t Panic, Mr Mannering. And as a general rule, anything sold via a subscription should be viewed with suspicion. If it auto-renews, then they are out to get you. More widely, I am buying. Bring it on. Monevator dealt with the yield curve earlier, and you’re late to the party, which is not a good look for £280 a year.
I now expect my mum to tell me about the yield curve inverting when I call her this Sunday. In-between her spring gardening plans.Monevator
The other problem with Citywire’s Pulse is that I expect competence in the spelling, at least. I will look the other way at the curious construct of SELL IN BEFORE MAY AND GO AWAY!, which has a sort of TEFL feel to it, but the video shows that you can’t get the staff down at t’wire
I’d normally ascribe this sort of puffery to something written by AI, but the brutalised English supports a human origin. Anyway, I intend to ignore this breathless ballyhoo and buy over time. After all, if sell in May and go away, come back on St Leger Day is true then isn’t that when you want to be a net buyer in the summer? Also if you have religion about annual timing, then wouldn’t you want to avoid holding ‘owt in October too?
The bummer with short-term macro calls is the and then what problem. I’m not against macro calls across the board. I have more VFEM than perhaps one would expect, because I don’t have the feeling the West will be cock-of-the-rock for half my retirement, as well as demographic issues.
OTOH I will be more than happy to be shown wrong. It’s also a heavier weighting, rather than an balls-deep OMG The West is Toast Short It Now. Because and then what. I’m still the bear I was ten years ago, but I’ve done okay over that time by being wrong and investing in what I didn’t believe in. Which is probably the basic problem with investing newsletters in general. Not only do they have to be a damn sight more accurate than they are, they also have to be actionable on both sides. Citywire Pulse is telling you to Get Out Now, but even if they turn out to be right, are they going to be right about the time to get you back in?
Now what shall we spend the £280 saved this year on? Could do worse than VWRL, I guess.