Citywire’s miscellaneous marked up moronic musings on market movements

I use Citywire occasionally, and they spammed me with this breathless noodling. Now don’t get me wrong. I share some of their opinion that economically we are in a hole, and until the last couple of months I would say the stock market was overvalued, particularly in tech. However, this is all storytelling, and one thing I have learned across ten years is that short-term macro storytelling is hard to use. To be honest, you are better off with a Netflix subscription, not so much because the storytelling is better, but because the scenery and the protagonists are more attractive. How do you like your stories?

Netflix
Citywire Pulse

Which storytelling would you rather look at? Netflix seems to roll in cheaper at £192 p.a

SELL IN BEFORE MAY AND GO AWAY!
The market bounce has entered April. Investors should use this rally to sell
before May, as equity markets may be about to re-enter a volatile bear market
for the rest of 2022.

Hmm, what rally is this we speak of? Let me consult the Great God Vanguard and their price of VWRL

Rally? Oh Really?

Well, I suppose it’s a rally of sorts. Equity markets may always ‘enter volatility’. What I would expect to get for £280 a year is at least Equity Markets will enter a volatile bear market after May, and if they are higher in December than they were in May (benchmark SPX or QQQ or whatever) then your money back, hows about that? Or if December is too heady for you because of the Santa bounce, then guarantee it till St Leger Day at least.

Record-high inflation has left central banks cornered, unable to resist hiking
rates and taking liquidity out of the market. This makes the economic downturn
almost certain.

They’ve spent the last ten years resisting hiking rates when perhaps they should have done. Has somebody suddenly taken the old Frankenstein jump leads to Paul Volcker then? Surely the energy crisis is more of a thing than what the Fed may or may not get up to. At least it’s got form.

Yield curves are one of the leading indicators for investment strategists, along with liquidity data and monetary aggregates.

Subscribe to unlock this issue of Pulse.

Plan will auto renew for £280/ year or £28/month until cancelled

Don’t Panic, Mr Mannering[1]. And as a general rule, anything sold via a subscription should be viewed with suspicion. If it auto-renews, then they are out to get you. More widely, I am buying. Bring it on. Monevator dealt with the yield curve earlier, and you’re late to the party, which is not a good look for £280 a year.

I now expect my mum to tell me about the yield curve inverting when I call her this Sunday. In-between her spring gardening plans.

Monevator

The other problem with Citywire’s Pulse is that I expect competence in the spelling, at least. I will look the other way at the curious construct of SELL IN BEFORE MAY AND GO AWAY!, which has a sort of TEFL feel to it, but the video shows that you can’t get the staff down at t’wire

Seriously. Won’t somebody save us from the grocer’s apostrophe?
The intern trawled https://stuckinthemiddle.substack.com/ for inspiration from Twitter’s @mrblonde_macro. I’ve saved you £280 p.a. You’re welcome.

I’d normally ascribe this sort of puffery to something written by AI, but the brutalised English supports a human origin. Anyway, I intend to ignore this breathless ballyhoo and buy over time. After all, if sell in May and go away, come back on St Leger Day is true then isn’t that when you want to be a net buyer in the summer? Also if you have religion about annual timing, then wouldn’t you want to avoid holding ‘owt in October too?

The bummer with short-term macro calls is the and then what problem. I’m not against macro calls across the board. I have more VFEM than perhaps one would expect, because I don’t have the feeling the West will be cock-of-the-rock for half my retirement, as well as demographic issues.

A classic figure-ground problem. Who hasn’t sanctioned Russia carries perhaps more information than the yellow bits. I would hazard a guess that this is some of what secular decline looks like

OTOH I will be more than happy to be shown wrong. It’s also a heavier weighting, rather than an balls-deep OMG The West is Toast Short It Now. Because and then what. I’m still the bear I was ten years ago, but I’ve done okay over that time by being wrong and investing in what I didn’t believe in. Which is probably the basic problem with investing newsletters in general. Not only do they have to be a damn sight more accurate than they are, they also have to be actionable on both sides. Citywire Pulse is telling you to Get Out Now, but even if they turn out to be right, are they going to be right about the time to get you back in?

Now what shall we spend the £280 saved this year on? Could do worse than VWRL, I guess.

8 thoughts on “Citywire’s miscellaneous marked up moronic musings on market movements”

  1. Philippine Leroy-Beaulieu? Ashley Park?

    Seems the further down the celebrity tree, the more absurd the names. I’d expect to get access to at least one of the above with my NT membership card…

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Hi,

    I am a bit of a news junkie and will watch most news programs. I don’t subscribe to any financial newsletters like citywire, but do like to watch Bloomberg TV for financial news, which is free on Freesat and they have been discussing yield curve inversion for weeks now. I enjoy the debates they have the great and the good from the investing world they get on there, always food for thought, but rarely do I act on it.

    Anyway, my diffusing of CGT was done last week, within 2 days of the new tax year. I don’t see any point in hanging round as the sooner I do it the better and it also allows me to move some dividend paying funds into a tax free ISA environment too boot. Can’t say I even pretend to have any special or unique insight into the markets, but I did go slightly underweight EM in the process, but that was as much to do with streamlining the transaction as anything. I have no idea if this is the right thing to do, or over what timescale (I will probably correct it next tax year), but using an ISA for previously tax holding is a sure fire winner.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Didn’t know that’s on freesat. I must go for a listings refresh sometime, though it gets hard to wade through the interminable x+1 channels as they multiply.

      Definitely would seem the way to go to move to tax-sheltered ASAP. I make the exception for gold, because it pays no income, and also it is easy-ish to defuse CGT outside tax wrappers by moving from one gold ETF to another company’s gold ETF. And I’ve also positioned about 50k in a GIA to make use of my £2k dividend tax allowance, eventually when I have unused ISA space I guess that will mode. HYP shares tend to be plodders capgain wise so I’m unlikely to see a problem there.

      Like

      1. “it is easy-ish to defuse CGT outside tax wrappers by moving from one gold ETF to another company’s gold ETF.”

        Or you could just buy Jimmy O’Goblins: they’re free of CGT anyway as long as post 1837. And you can sit by the fire on a dark, cold, wet night, counting them and cackling.

        Liked by 1 person

      2. > Jimmy O’Goblins: they’re free of CGT anyway as long as post 1837

        Yeah, but there’s the worry of the physical media. I have a respectable amount of holdings in gold. I probably shouldn’t, barbarous relic and cubes to fondle etc. I computed the number of coins equivalent, I could just about pick them up and run with them…

        Like

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