I wake up on Friday the 13th to find the serial liar and philanderer has bagged a clear win. Guess that’s a clear vote for Brexit then. Bring it on, it’s what people still really really want, and at least this time there’s a sort of actionable form of Brexit on the table. I did not contribute to this result 😉
Yes, I’d have preferred a hung Parliament and a second referendum/revocation. However, that was clearly a minority sport, and this time it’s clear, and it’s for something actionable, unlike the original misbegotten EU referendum which was for an undefined negative. I still despise the weakness of that referendum to settle a catfight in the Tory party, its lack of needing a supermajority for constitutional change etc. But now it’s clear that it’s unequivocal and it’s what most people want, so let ’em have it.
The financial aspect
Can’t really understand why, on sparking up Iweb, I am significantly better off. Sure, I bought IGWD which is sort of VWRL hedged to the pound, and it has gained some due to the lift in the pound due to some Brexit clarification. But most of my holdings are international equities or indices, and one would expect them to tank in £ nominal terms, giving back some of the gains I received earlier. While I do hold a fair lump of IGWD it isn’t enough and hasn’t changed so much, However I do have a fair amount of VMID, and that shifted more.
Against my gut judgement I’d invested all my ISA bar about £2k. The Santa rally seems to have come early this year. Will it stick, or will the rising pound reverse the Brexit boom I got a couple of years ago? In the end I will probably be better off that my £ denominated pension income is worth more in terms of the value of foreign stuff that I can buy even if my ISA takes a gut punch. Maybe next year will be the time to buy relatively beaten-down in £ terms foreign assets with my last ISA contribution fo all time.
I predict Brexit won’t be done within five years
Sure, we will be non Europeans, hopefully out by Jan 31st. Will we have a finished trade deal by 2025? Nah. In the words of one of pifflepaffle’s alleged heros when talking about another European adventure1,
this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is probably the end of the beginning.
- concerning the battle of Al Alamein but against Rommel ↩