Windfall for tourists as Carney trails interest rate rise

The Grauniad tells us it’s a good time to be a British tourist, all thanks to that Carney chap trailing an interest rate rise. I can’t help feeling that empty promises of  rising interest rates are just like a lasting solution to the Greek predicament, this is a movie that we’ve seen before and will see again – announcement of interest rate rise only to welch on the deal when push comes to shove. But a lot of people seem to buy it. Or perhaps they’re pissed off with the Grexit shenaigans. Either way, we’re back in 2007 again in relative terms to the Euro, though we are all still flat on our financial backs with stars going round in front of our eyes. And that’s before you even think of Greece.

1507_eurogbpNow an Ermine could take the opportunity to hit Eurotunnel, duel with the myriad desperados and striking Frenchmen, and join the massed ranks of British wage slaves on their annual family two weeks in the sun, or I could think to myself maybe I’ll pass on that. I’ve always avoided school holidays for travelling anywhere because it’s damned hot and the price goes up and, well l’enfer c’est les autres avec leur fractious rugrats on public transport in the heat of summer. After 30 years of avoiding this sort of fun I’m not about to start now.

Nevertheless, perhaps I could take some of my ISA for a summer holiday. Last year I was a forced seller and sold IDJV[ref]IDJV is basically Eurozone big fish.[/ref] for about £16 because it had fallen to what I had paid for it. It was unwrapped, I’d already maxed my CGT allowance so I couldn’t sell any of the rest of my holdings at a profit even though I needed the cash, hence I had to borrow some. Now it’s still a bit higher than that at £16.91, so I’ve told TD to let me know if it falls to a bit below what I sold at, because then I can effectively bed and ISA this over six months.

All sorts of other foreign stuff will get cheaper. Now the other side of the coin is that all the foreign stuff that I already own will go down the toilet a bit. As it is this isn’t a hugge issue for me as I am hopelessly unbalanced worldwide

Ermine total equity distribution
Ermine total equity distribution

because my HYP is the largest lump and it’s UK biased. Index True Believers would sell off half of that and pump up that devxUK and EM. I’m okay with buying EM and have done some of that already, and it bleeds now of course 😉 I’m not touching the US at current valuations but I would quite like to see some of that IDJV, in my ISA this time thanks very much. I’m not in a great hurry – 1550 would do me well. I should probably knock it off on the EM and lift some bombed out dev world. The problem is that as the ISA gets larger the annual steering wheel of new contributions gets smaller compared to the overall size. Since I don’t sell and I bought a lot of the HYP in the bombed out years of 2009 to 2011 I’m going to have a hard time balancing this out a bit. But a high pound and a low Euro helps…

So you can keep your sea, sun and sand. I’ll get my summertime kicks on the market, particularly if the Greeks go and scare the horses a bit more. I like hot lazy summers of snarl in the markets.